Is Texas a minority majority state

Texas became a majority-minority state -- one where whites makeup less than 50 percent of the population -- sometime between 2002 and 2004. There are still more white people than any other ethnic group in the state, and whites still accounted for 57 percent of eligible voters in 2012, but that will eventually change, too.

New data from the Center for American Progress, a progressive think tank, show just when the bigger demographic tipping points might happen. According to the authors of the study, which has been compiled into a cool set of interactive charts, by 2020 Hispanics will become the largest ethnic group in the state, making up 42 percent of Texans. By 2044, the state will be majority Hispanic and only 31 percent white, the researchers say.

The trends among Texans who are eligible to vote is similar, if more gradual. By 2036, there will be more Hispanic Texans eligible to vote than white Texans. In 2056, if the researchers' model is correct, the majority of Texans eligible to vote will be Hispanic.

The research includes similar numbers for every state and the United States as a whole, with projections extending until 2060. As it stands, Texas is one of three states that is currently majority-minority, along with New Mexico and California. The study projects that Nevada, Maryland, Arizona and Georgia will join the club in the next decade.

Graphic by Hillary Sorin

On this date in 2005, the United States Census Bureau announced that Texas had become the newest majority minority state, joining Hawaii, New Mexico, California and Washington D.C. According to July 1, 2004 population estimates, Texas had a minority population of 11.3 million, comprising 50.2 percent of its total population of 22.5 million.

According to the 2005 data, Hispanics represent the largest minority group in Texas. African Americans represent more than 15 percent of the state’s population and there is a sizable and growing Asian American population. The census data also revealed that the populations of an additional five states were more than 40 percent minority: Maryland, Mississippi, Georgia, New York and Arizona.

Since 2005, the minority majority population of Texas has only increased. According to a May 17, 2007 Census Bureau press release, Hispanics accounted for almost half (1.4 million) of the national population growth of 2.9 million between July 1, 2005, and July 1, 2006. California had the largest Hispanic population of any state as of July 1, 2006 (13.1 million), followed by Texas (8.4 million) and Florida (3.6 million), but Texas had the largest numerical increase between 2005 and 2006 (305,000).

Some political analysts suggest that Texas’ changing ethnic and racial demographics may turn this decidedly red state blue in this year’s upcoming governor’s race. In Texas, Latinos make up about 36 percent of the population. Since 2004, when President Bush captured 49 percent of Texas Hispanic votes, to John Kerry’s 50 percent, Democrats have increased their lead over Republicans among likely Hispanic voters.

The state’s Democratic Party has made dramatic gains in state legislative seats since 2006 and the Republicans have only a 76-74 margin in the state House. Democratic mayors now control Texas’ largest cities, Dallas and Houston. In this past presidential election, Texas Latinos accounted for approximately 20 percent of participating voters.

The 2006 census data shows that the Hispanic population is much younger than the rest of the population, with a median age of 27.4 years as compared with 36.4 years for the population as a whole. Furthermore, about one-third of the Hispanic population was younger than 18, compared with only one-fourth of the total population.

However, since much of the growth of the Hispanic population is focused among persons who are not of voting age, demographic changes may indicate that Texas is heading blue but it is not there yet. Potential Hispanic Democrats are not yet old enough to vote.

Texas may be a minority-majority state, but Republicans may still hold substantial political power in the coming years or at least for this governor’s race – unless, of course, soon-to-be-former-Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson and her opponent, incumbent Republican Gov. Perry, destroy one another in the primary.

Either way, the announcement that Texas had become a majority minority state in 2005 has historical significance and future political implications.

Graphic by Hillary Sorin

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